David,
What's your opinion/insight/hunch on what is going to happen in
the next
6 months with the value of the Canadian buck compared to the U.S.
buck? I
have just sold my house in BC and will be moving to the States.
Should I
convert my money now or hold on for awhile?
N xxxxxxx (an old client)
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david ingram replies:
I do not pretend to be an economist but did spend four years at
UBC getting a diploma in Urban Land Economics. Between the 40%
price increase in Real estate in the Vancouver area and the 35%
drop in value of the US dollar, you have made 75% extra in US
dollars over what you would have got if you had sold the house in
2003.
I am one of the people that thinks the US and Canadian dollar are
going to par (as it was from 72 to 76) in the near future. Heck,
I can remember when a Canadian dollar was worth 1.09 US ( Aug 21,
1957)
However, a lot of that thought is based upon the US being able to
continue to buy Canadian exports. If they slow down just 10%, it
will have a big effect on the relative values and a lot of major
economists believe that at best we will stay in the $1.10 US to
Canada that we are at now and another few think we will go back
to $1.20 US but not higher.
A sensible solution might be to move half of it and not get
totally caught. If it was me, I would throw at least a third of
it into US funds sooner rather than later.
The values are based upon perception. There is no doubt that our
exports to the US have slowed down in the last while.
Remember, you have to report any capital gain on the sale of the
house to the CRA from the day you became a non-resident u until
the day you sold it.
david
---------------------------------
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