Coalition Math

I did not write this but enjoy passing it on

simple math....



To all those who support the Coalition, and specifically those who are using the so called logic that "62% of Canada didn't vote for Stephen Harper" as the reason why this group should be supported, let's walk through a little math.


From the Elections Canada results of the 40th General Election held on October 14th, 2008 the popular votes are as follows:


Green Party   6.8%

Bloc Quebecois   10%

NDP   18.2%

Liberal  26.2%

Conservative 37.6%


Using the rational that 62.4% of the voters didn't vote for Stephen Harper, 93.2% didn't vote for Elizabeth May, 90% didn't vote for Gilles Duceppe, 81.8% didn't vote for Jack Layton, and 73.8% didn't vote for Stephane Dion.


Of course the argument is that collectively the Liberals, NDP, and the Bloc had  54.4% of the popular vote, superficially looking like they trumped the Conservatives by having greater than 50% plus one of the popular vote.  However, I think it's safe to say that no voter in the provinces and territories outside of Quebec put an "X" beside a Bloc candidate, so the Bloc votes should not be lumped in as representing the wishes of Canadian voters.  That brings the "real" coalition support amongst "Canadians" down to 44.4%. 


Now, I know you die-hard coalition supporters are going to crow about how 44.4% still beats the Conservatives 37.6%, but keep in mind that individually the Libs and NDP were still well behind the Conservatives.  If they wanted to pool their winnings to go on a money spending junket with our taxpayers dollars they should have merged the two parties together before the election.  Admittedly, Dion has tilted the Libs so far to the left maybe the two parties really have become one and the same (although my die-hard Liberal friends vehemently deny it when that topic comes up). Also, let's not forget that Mr. Dion led his party to its poorest showing since Confederation - SINCE CONFEDERATION! - hardly a ringing endorsement to be leading anything in this country.


The reality is, with five parties splitting the votes in this country (and it doesn't look like any of them are planning to go away soon, and it looks like the Greens will continue to gain ground) the chances of forming a majority government for any party have diminished.  Certainly, the chances of any party winning a majority with a majority in the popular vote are becoming statistically very slim.


We as Canadians may have to get used to minority governments (remember, this our third in a row).  Yes, coalitions have been in place in the past.  If my memory is correct, the last one was under Borden during WW I.  Although I wasn't around then, I'm assuming WW I was probably an even more dramatic circumstance than our current economic woes and perhaps the reasons for a coalition at that time was very valid.  I'm not convinced it is now.


So please,  followers of the three wise men of the Coalition, come up with some arguments other than "62% of the country didn't vote for Stephen Harper".  Critique the Conservatives policies.  Offer your own ideas and recommendations.  Debate with some substance.  But don't through that flimsy mathmatical argument around.  It makes me feel even less convinced that your crew is the right crew to put their hand(s) on the rudder of our country as we steer through the current economic waters.




Joe the grade 12 math graduate


Trackback URL for this entry:

No trackback comments for this entry.